Tide beginning to turn as South East businesses expect improved outlook in 2012
After three years, the tide seems to be turning slightly for businesses in the South East region with around half expecting an improvement in sales in 2012 and just 17% expecting a further fall. Even more positive is the fact that businesses in those sectors that were hit hardest, such as financial services initially and then retail / wholesale and hotels / restaurants / tourism, are among the most positive for the coming year, according to the findings of the latest South East Business Confidence Study. Though more businesses recorded a fall in customer activity in the past six months than an increase, nonetheless, a majority expect that 2011 will turn out to have been a better year than 2010 from a sales perspective. Indeed, half of those who have seen a sales increase 2011 report it as being 10% or greater. This is the eighth in a series of twice-yearly surveys conducted in the South-East region by Kilkenny-based market research firm, Market Dynamics. A total of 349 businesses in the region participated.
Commenting on the results, John Gilsenan, Managing Director of Market Dynamics, stated: “after seemingly never-ending gloom about the business environment we can now see a more positive outlook which is coming from some unexpected sectors, such as financial services, hotels / restaurants / tourism and retail / wholesale. Even the construction sector is more positive. A very encouraging sign is the accuracy of businesses in their predictions. In previous years, business forecasts made in the May survey have been found to have been overly-ambitious by the time of the November one. This time, however, businesses expectations for the year in this survey tally with predictions made in May. This is reassuring for businesses who can make plans in a more confident manner".
 South East Business Confidence Study, November 2011 Executive Summary
Other Major Findings
- Tide beginning to turn with half of businesses seeing better sales this year than last (just 28% lower)
- Most positive sectors this year are Agriculture, Manufacturing and Financial Services – Transport / Distribution / Telecoms and Retail/wholesale most negative
- Expectations for profitability this year very evenly balanced with same number expecting a fall as a rise
- Employment outlook similar to May survey – net fall in jobs this year – 15% of businesses are employing more and 25% fewer than end fo 2010
- Outlook for the coming year is more positive than at any time since the survey began in May 2008 – 50% expect sales to improve while just 17% expect a decline
- Financial services, manufacturing and hotels/restaurants/tourism are the most positive sectors - Transport / Distribution / Telecoms and Retail / wholesale more positive
- Even construction firms broadly positive (74% expect improvement or same as 2011)
- Respondents' level of positivity about their own business prospects continues to improve
- Big improvement since May survey in level of positivity about Irish economy (+7% compared to -11%)
- Nonetheless, slight majority of businesses have seen a fall in customer activity in past 6 months (38% more, 40% less)
- If offered a loan of up to half of annual turnover at 5% interest rate just 44% would accept
- Massive dissatisfaction with value for money that businesses get from the Rates they pay to Local Authorities – just 4% satisfied
- South East businesses even more dissatisfied with government on performance on public sector and banking than 6 months ago
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